ABN Amro Forecasts 16% Decline in Dutch Rental Homes' Value by End of 2024

Discover ABN Amro's projections for a sharp decline in the value of rental homes in the Netherlands, driven by stricter rent regulation and high interest rates. Gain insights from the bank's real estate experts on the anticipated 11% decrease this year and an additional 5% drop in 2024, with prices not expected to stabilize until 2025.

According to ABN Amro, the value of rental homes in the Netherlands is expected to decline sharply in the coming years. The bank's real estate experts attribute this to stricter rent regulation by the government and high interest rates, which make it more challenging to finance rental properties. It is projected that the price of rental homes will decrease by 11 percent this year and an additional 5 percent in 2024, with prices not expected to stabilize until 2025.

Outgoing Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge has expressed a desire to further regulate the rental market in order to better protect tenants. However, economists have criticized the timing of these regulatory measures, citing existing measures such as increased transfer tax for investors, restrictions on immediate renting out of purchased homes in certain municipalities, and changes in the tax treatment of rental properties.

In addition to the decline in the rental housing market, ABN Amro predicts that the entire commercial real estate sector will also experience a decrease in value, with a projected 10 percent decrease this year and a further 3.5 percent decrease next year. This is attributed to the economic slowdown and the pressure on prices due to high interest rates for refinancing, leading some investors to be forced to sell their properties.

The Dutch rental housing market is expected to face significant challenges in the coming years, with declining property values and increased regulatory measures impacting both investors and tenants.