ABN Amro Forecasts 7.5% Rise in Dutch Home Prices by End of Next Year

According to ABN Amro, Dutch home prices are projected to surge by 7.5% by the end of next year, signaling a promising outlook for the real estate market.

ABN Amro has revised its forecast for house price growth this year, increasing it from 2.5 percent to 4 percent. This adjustment is attributed to higher wages, declining mortgage rates, and a growing shortage of housing supply, according to the bank's economists. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank anticipates a further 3.5 percent increase in home prices. The resurgence in home prices since the summer of last year can be attributed to improved affordability, driven by higher wages and lower mortgage rates, as well as a significant decrease in the number of homes available for sale in the previous quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. This scarcity has led to reduced options for buyers and an increase in bidding wars for homes. The rising number of single-person households has further exacerbated the housing shortage, as noted by ANB Amro.

While the number of home sales continues to face pressure, ABN Amro believes that the steepest decline in transactions may be behind us. The bank explained that due to price trends and interest rate decreases, homeowners looking to move to a new home are more willing to purchase a new property before selling their current one. The average time it takes to sell a house has been decreasing for three consecutive quarters. Although there was a decrease in total mortgages granted last year due to the decline in home sales and higher mortgage interest rates, the last quarter of 2023 saw a rise in the number of mortgage applications for the first time since the beginning of 2022. ABN Amro believes this could be a positive sign for the upcoming year. Notably, the share of mortgage applications from first-time buyers saw a significant increase, indicating an improvement in their position in the housing market, according to housing market economist Bram Vendel. Additionally, Vendel pointed out that if the gift exemption is eliminated, first-time buyers can still utilize a family mortgage. Currently, about one in six households in the Netherlands utilizes a family mortgage, as stated by the ABN Amro economist.

ABN Amro's upward revision of its house price growth forecast, along with the factors contributing to this adjustment, reflects the evolving dynamics of the housing market. The impact of higher wages, declining mortgage rates, and a shortage of housing supply has reshaped the landscape for both buyers and sellers, with first-time buyers also experiencing improved prospects.