Expert Analysis: Why House Prices in Portugal Won’t Fall in 2024

Discover why sector experts believe the strong demand and supply imbalance will prevent housing prices from falling in Portugal in 2024.

The housing market in Portugal has been experiencing a prolonged period of rising prices, and experts predict that this trend will continue into 2024. Despite a projected slowdown in demand and sales, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to remain high, preventing any significant decline in housing prices.

Expert Analysis: Why House Prices in Portugal Won't Fall in 2024

According to a report by ECO, provisional data from JLL indicates a decrease in the number of homes sold and a decrease in turnover for the year 2024. However, industry experts do not foresee a general drop in prices due to the persistent scarcity of housing supply. Patrícia Barão, head of residential at JLL, attributes the expected slowdown in sales to rising inflation and interest rates, but does not anticipate a widespread decrease in prices.

Hugo Santos Ferreira, president of the Portuguese Association of Real Estate Developers and Investors (APPII), shares a similar sentiment, stating that house prices are not expected to fall in 2024 despite a slight slowdown in demand. Paulo Caiado, president of the Association of Real Estate Professionals and Companies (APEMIP), also believes that the data does not indicate a significant increase in housing supply that would impact prices.

Recent data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) shows that the housing price index in Portugal grew by 8.7% in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. Additionally, Eurostat data indicates a 93% increase in house prices and a 33% increase in rents in Portugal since 2010, placing the country among the top ten in the Eurozone for both categories.

The housing market in Portugal is expected to continue its upward trend in 2024, with no significant decline in prices anticipated due to the persistent imbalance between supply and demand.